While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try to avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There is absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Even so, you will find two ways that can enable you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Yet another way is to improve on statistical prediction models utilized by bookmakers.

The very first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which isn’t utilized in statistical models. Among the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type which is often an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is very important, since soccer predictions tend to be inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are often calculated before these facts shall be available.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are considered predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and the end of the season.

Additional factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, remember, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match will be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a vast improvement on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? For starters, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it is easy to notice that their models are determined by average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It really is clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don’t take into account that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing online casino soccer at home or away. Once you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models that were developed over the past few years explain historical match results in terms of changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy will be much lower.