As the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and attempt to avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There isn’t any one million-dollar answer. On the other hand, you will find two ways that can enable you to beat the bookies. One of the ways is to analyze non-measurable match information. Another way is to improve on statistical prediction models employed by bookmakers.

The very first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which just isn’t utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors which may influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type which may be an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the very best teams of low priority games.

Match time is essential, since soccer predictions tend to be inaccurate at the beginning and by the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in please click the following post cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are usually calculated before this information is accessible.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning as well as the end of the season.

Other factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, bear in mind, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a change on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? Foremost, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it is easy to notice that their models are according to average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It’s clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can boost your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not take into account that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models that were developed over the past few years explain historical match results when it comes to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.