The point spread’s sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the total amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. As such, if the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, no matter which team covers.
The most effective linesmakers are those who have a feel for exactly what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public’s perception of the strength of the 2 teams. It isn’t going to necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. As well as the sportsbook betting public’s perception is often wrong.
When you know that concept, the rest shall begin to fall into place. You will have an edge over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Do not bet against the Cowboys simply because you want to see them lose. And, don’t bet on a team simply because you like the team. And don’t bet on your favorite team if you are an avid fan. It’s almost not possible to be objective. Fans tend to be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the exact same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they’re not so sure of. It’s those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. When you are uncertain about a game, don’t bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. Alternatively, if you can be objective, you’ve got an edge. You probably know more about your home team than those in other parts of the country since the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage that is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, factor that into your decision. Some teams have other teams’ number. In the last 4 years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times and the one time they did not, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. Within the last five years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and you lose your bet. Still, remember the point is to increase your probability of winning. Based upon past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you are more very likely to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late within the week. By waiting until the end of the week, you will know about any injuries to key players which may affect how you bet. Normally, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that will keep the player out of the game. On top of that, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Number of Games You Bet. More is not better. The optimum number appears to be 3 to 6 games. Any more as well as the winning percentages tend to decline because the law of averages comes into play. (The better games you play the better likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that’s a losing season, as a result of the juice.) Additionally, it’s simpler to concentrate on a limited range of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. Regardless of what, you may count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, and even books. Be well prepared to ride it out. When you are using Pro Predictor or a handicapping service, you must stick with it throughout the season in order to come out a winner. Leaving at the first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to possess the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you certainly will never have and also will affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is a key to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over as well as over until it is firmly embedded within your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, in case you are going to bet on streaks, bet the streak will continue. And it does not matter regardless of if the streak is a winning streak or perhaps a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and you should bet against it. But there’s a hidden trap.
Consider the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Bear in mind, per week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You are $100 ahead. But what happens if they do cover and the streak continues. You are $110 within the hole. What do you do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 because the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? Should you, and also the streak ends, you win $100 and now are just $10 loser and that is the end of that. However, if the streak continues, you are now $220 in the hole. What do you need to do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall into the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and try to get back some of your losses? Do you double up in an attempt to cover your loses? Do not do it. Doubling up is never a wise idea. It is another trap that can cause you to have huge losses and it is not worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. If they fail to cover, you’ve lost $110 and that’s that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens whenever they do cover as well as the streak continues. You’re $100 to the good and if you continue to bet on the streak, great online football gambling; websites, the most you may lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Still, in the event the streak continues, you are guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
As a result, if you bet against a streak, the most you may win is $100 but you the amount you may lose is limited only by the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you can lose is $110, though the amount you can win is limited only by the length of the streak.