In his book “Betting to win” Prof. Williams wrote: “If ever there was a golden age of betting, this really is it”. He was absolutely right. In today’s world of soccer betting, we benefit from the services of bookmakers, online betting tips and media news. But still there remain two important questions any punter has to answer prior to placing his stake: who’s the favorite and what bet to place. Online betting resources for example betting tips sites, team analysis created by experts as well as the media news help you to pick the match favorite as well as to estimate the probability of win in no time. On the other hand, counting your profits look at these guys the end of the season, you find them, at the least, disappointing. Why? The reason is clear: bad money management.
This article summarizes a research conducted to be able to estimate the optimal parameters for money management strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of top vs. secondary European soccer leagues playing in 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons.
In order to present the results of the research, a number of definitions are required.
“Value bet” will be the measure of inconsistency between punters’ and bookmakers’ predictions for the upcoming match outcome. Each outcome has a distinct value.
A value bet refers only to the value of potentially profitable outcomes. As an example, in the event the probability of a win is 50%, then only outcomes with odds higher than 2 are thought about a value bet. The formula is as follows: odds x the probability of a win. Should the value is higher than 1, the bet is considered a “value bet”.
The probabilities of home win/draw/away win are estimated through the average frequency of their appearance during a season.
Given the value of each outcome, the profit is calculated according to the assumption that the punter places a stake in line with the Kelly’s strategy. Should the betting stake is negative, the punter will not play. The profit is calculated using bookmakers’ average betting odds.
An optimal value bet will be the value bet that brings the maximal profit.
Data from ten top and ten secondary leagues from the following European countries was analyzed: Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italia, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
A punter’s average cash in on soccer betting is calculated for value bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimal value bet was found to be 1.38, offering within an average profit of 12% for the top European Soccer Leagues. On the flip side, the optimal value bet for the secondary leagues was found to be 1.5, resulting in the average profit of 19%. This difference means that a punter must have a larger confidence when betting on a secondary league, than when betting on a top league. The profit is higher because bookmakers’ predictions are worse, resulting in attractive betting odds for punters.