How You Can identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they give a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn’t appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they are “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers will vary to the extent that you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there’s absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That’s your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the chances of each outcome just isn’t due to this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we have been handling bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and full report bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is a great one to show just how to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.