How You Can identify value within your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they offer a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they’d in theory make sure to lose on the event, they can be “under round” . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent that one can find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there’s no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could possibly be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That’s your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the prospects of each outcome isn’t due to this page article. It deserves more complete treatment than may be given here where we are coping with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There can be occasions when it is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there’s a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.

It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.