The Way To identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they’re “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn’t happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you can make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there’s absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the prospects of each outcome is just not due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we are dealing with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and learn online casino football bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it’s necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is the best one to show how you can use percentages.

It’s generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you’ll need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.