Just How To identify value in your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they offer a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they’re “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn’t happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you may bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of mouse click the next web page percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you assess the chances of each outcome is just not due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we are managing bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it’s necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a good one to show how you can use percentages.

It’s generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you’ll need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Due to this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.