Learn Online Soccer 37713864256859828

Best Dot Net Training ForumsCategory: TrainingLearn Online Soccer 37713864256859828
Erin Quintana asked 1 month ago

While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There’s absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Even so, you will find two ways that can allow you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. One other way is to improve on statistical prediction models used by bookmakers.

The very first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which isn’t employed in statistical models. Among the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type which can be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can make the most of betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is essential, since soccer predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are often calculated before This Webpage information is available.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and also the end of the season.

Additional circumstances are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, keep in mind, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a change on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? To start with, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it’s easy to notice that their models are based upon average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with good table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don’t take into account that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. When you learn to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can readily forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models that have been developed over the past couple of years explain historical match results with regard to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy will be much lower.