The Way To identify value within your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and the way they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn’t seem to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where Read the Full Content odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they can be “under round” . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn’t happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there’s absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That’s your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the probability of each outcome just isn’t for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been working with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There can be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there’s a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a great one to show how you can use percentages.

It’s generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.