The point spread’s sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. Consequently, if the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the total amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, no matter which team covers.
The very best linesmakers are many who have a feel for precisely what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public’s perception of the strength of the 2 teams. It will not necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the 2 teams. And also the sportsbook betting public’s perception is usually wrong.
As soon as you know that concept, the rest will start to fall into place. You will have an advantage over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Don’t bet against the Cowboys just because you want to see them lose. And, don’t bet on a team simply because you like the team. And do not bet on your favorite team if you are an avid fan. It’s impossible to be objective. Fans often be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they are not so sure of. It’s those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. For anybody who is uncertain about a game, do not bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. However, in the event you can be objective, you’ve got an edge. You probably know more about your home team than those in other parts of the country since the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage that is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, component that into your decision. Some teams have other teams’ number. Within the last four years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times and the one time they didn’t, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. Within the last 5 years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and also you lose your bet. Yet, remember the reason is to improve your probability of winning. Determined by past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you’re more prone to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late in the week. By waiting until the end of the week, you’ll know about any injuries to key players that may affect how you bet. Ordinarily, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that may keep the player out of the game. Also, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Number of Games You Bet. More is not better. The optimum number seems to be 3 to six games. Any more as well as the winning percentages often decline because the law of averages comes into play. (The better games you play the better likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that is a losing season, because of the juice.) Also, it’s easier to focus on a limited range of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. Regardless of what, you may count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, and also books. Be prepared to ride it check out this blog post via learndash.aula.edu.pe. In case you are using Pro Predictor or possibly a handicapping service, you must stick with it through the season in order to come out a winner. Leaving at the first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to possess the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you certainly will not have and will affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is an integral to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over and over until it’s firmly embedded within your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, if you’re going to bet on streaks, bet the streak shall continue. And it doesn’t matter whether the streak is a winning streak or a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and also you should bet against it. But there is a hidden trap.
Consider the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Remember, a week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You’re $100 ahead. But what happens whenever they do cover as well as the streak continues. You are $110 within the hole. What do you do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 since the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? Should you, as well as the streak ends, you win $100 and now are just $10 loser and that’s the end of that. Nonetheless, if the streak continues, you are now $220 in the hole. What do you do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall in to the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and try to get back several of your losses? Do you double up in an try to cover your loses? Don’t do it. Doubling up is never a good idea. It’s another trap that may cause you to have huge losses and it isn’t worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. Should they fail to cover, you have lost $110 and that’s that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens should they do cover and the streak continues. You are $100 to the good and if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you can lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and also the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Nonetheless, if the streak continues, you’re guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
For this reason, if you bet against a streak, the most you can win is $100 but you the amount you may lose is limited only by the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you can lose is $110, but the amount you may win is limited only by the length of the streak.